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What will be the status of Ukraine's sovereignty by the end of 2025?
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Nikolai Patrushev•Russian•Vladimir Putin•Ukraine•Russia•United States•Western•Patrushev•Moscow•London•Brussels•Komsomolskaya Pravda•Ukrainian•US•Donald Trump•Putin
Resolution / Starting Odds
Fully sovereign and recognized • 25%
Partially sovereign with limited recognition • 25%
Under Russian control • 25%
Ceased to exist as a sovereign state • 25%
International recognition and reports from major news outlets and organizations such as the United Nations
Story
Putin's Aide Warns Ukraine Could Cease to Exist by 2025, Calls for Direct Russia-US Talks Excluding Other Western Countries
Jan 14, 2025, 12:47 PM
Nikolai Patrushev, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, has stated that negotiations on Ukraine should be conducted exclusively between Russia and the United States, without the participation of other Western countries. Patrushev emphasized that Moscow has nothing to discuss with London or Brussels regarding Ukraine. Additionally, he warned that Ukraine could 'cease to exist' as a country by 2025, a statement made during an interview with the Russian state-backed outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda. Patrushev described the Ukrainian people as 'close, brotherly, and bound to Russia by centuries-old ties.' He also mentioned that any future discussions on Ukraine should consider the stance of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has confirmed plans for a potential meeting with Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.
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Similar markets
Independent sovereign state • 25%
Other status • 25%
Divided into regions controlled by different entities • 25%
Annexed by Russia • 25%
Recognized as sovereign • 25%
Other • 25%
Divided into multiple states • 25%
Annexed by Russia • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine aligns with Russia • 25%
Ukraine remains neutral • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Stalemate with current borders • 25%
Loss of territory • 25%
Territory changes hands multiple times • 25%
Ukraine gains territory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Russia gains territory • 25%