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What will be the status of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal by August 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire deal reached and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire deal reached but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire deal not reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of Israel, Hamas, or mediating parties
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Blinken: Iran Weeks Away from Nuclear Weapon Material, Ceasefire Deal Near
Jul 19, 2024, 04:28 PM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has revealed that Iran is one to two weeks away from reaching the breakout point of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum with NPR's Mary Louise Kelly, Blinken emphasized that while Iran is close to achieving this capability, it has not yet built a nuclear weapon. This development marks a significant reduction in the time Iran needs to create sufficient fissile material, which was previously estimated to be at least a year away. Blinken also mentioned that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is 'inside the 10-yard line.'
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