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What will be the outcome of the proposed ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2024?
2
Israel•Hamas•Yahya Sinwar•Gaza•Israeli Broadcasting Authority•Benjamin Netanyahu•Palestinian•Israeli
Resolution / Starting Odds
Comprehensive ceasefire deal reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government, Hamas, and major news outlets like BBC, CNN, or Reuters
Story
Israel Proposes Comprehensive Ceasefire Deal with Hamas Including Hostage Release and Safe Passage for Yahya Sinwar
Sep 19, 2024, 08:18 AM
Israel has presented a new proposal to Hamas for a comprehensive ceasefire deal, which includes the immediate release of all hostages at once and the safe passage of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and others out of Gaza. This proposal follows accusations from the Israeli Broadcasting Authority against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of obstructing previous hostage deals. The new plan aims to combine all stages of negotiations into a single step, potentially involving Gaza's disarmament. The November truce between Israel and Hamas collapsed after Hamas falsely claimed that female hostages set for release were dead, offering seven bodies and three living captives instead. Additionally, the proposal includes the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.
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Ceasefire agreed and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deal agreed and implemented • 25%
Deal agreed but not implemented • 25%
Deal not agreed • 25%
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Complete adherence by both sides • 25%
Partial adherence with minor violations • 25%
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Complete breakdown of the ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
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Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
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Other • 25%
Cease-fire agreement with hostage release • 25%
Cease-fire agreement without hostage release • 25%
No cease-fire agreement • 25%
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Complete peace maintained • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Deal collapses entirely • 25%
Comprehensive deal reached, all hostages released • 25%
Partial deal reached, some hostages released • 25%
No deal reached, no hostages released • 25%
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Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release deal agreed • 25%
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Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
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Escalation of conflict • 25%
Complete ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
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Talks collapsed • 25%