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What will be the nature of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire with conditions • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government, Hamas, or reputable news sources such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera.
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IDF Recovers Six Bodies in Gaza Amid Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks
Aug 31, 2024, 10:55 PM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have recovered six bodies from the Gaza Strip, which may include hostages. However, the identities of the bodies have not been confirmed, likely requiring DNA testing, and there is ongoing speculation about their status. President Joe Biden has acknowledged the situation, stating that the bodies' identities are still unknown and urging caution until they are identified. He also mentioned that negotiations between Israel and Hamas are progressing, with both sides close to reaching an agreement on a cease-fire. Biden remains optimistic about the potential for a deal, citing fundamental agreements reached by the parties involved.
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Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release agreement reached • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release agreements reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations abandoned • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire agreement partially implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Complete adherence by both sides • 25%
Partial adherence with minor violations • 25%
Significant violations by either side • 25%
Complete breakdown of the ceasefire • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%