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VisitWill Iran announce it has built a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2024?
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No • 50%
Official announcements from the Iranian government or credible international news sources
Blinken: Iran Weeks Away from Nuclear Weapon Material, Ceasefire Deal Near
Jul 19, 2024, 04:28 PM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has revealed that Iran is one to two weeks away from reaching the breakout point of producing fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum with NPR's Mary Louise Kelly, Blinken emphasized that while Iran is close to achieving this capability, it has not yet built a nuclear weapon. This development marks a significant reduction in the time Iran needs to create sufficient fissile material, which was previously estimated to be at least a year away. Blinken also mentioned that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is 'inside the 10-yard line.'
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Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%