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What will be the status of the Gaza Strip conflict by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire in Place • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Peace Agreement Reached • 25%
Escalated Conflict • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government, Hamas, or credible news sources
Story
Trump Demands Hamas Release American Hostages in RNC Speech
Jul 19, 2024, 02:21 AM
Former U.S. President Donald J. Trump issued a stern warning to Hamas during his RNC speech in Milwaukee, demanding the release of American hostages held in the Gaza Strip. Trump emphasized that the hostages must be returned before he assumes office, or Hamas will face severe consequences. This strong stance contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's approach, which has been criticized for being less assertive. The Biden administration has blamed Hamas for delaying a deal to release the hostages, and there are reports that Israeli official Itamar Ben-Gvir suggested delaying a ceasefire agreement to impact Biden's reelection chances. The situation remains tense, with over 30 Americans having been killed by Hamas on October 7.
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Conflict ends, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict ends, ceasefire does not hold • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire holds • 25%
Conflict continues, ceasefire does not hold • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire in place • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Escalation into wider regional conflict • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
De-escalated conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Demilitarized Gaza under Israeli control • 25%
Gaza under Hamas control • 25%
Gaza under a new governing body • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
IDF victory • 25%
Hamas retains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Hamas victory • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Military victory for Israel • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Ended • 25%
Significantly reduced • 25%
Ongoing at current intensity • 25%
Escalated • 25%