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What will be the status of Romania's EU membership by the end of 2025 under Georgescu?
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Russian•Calin Georgescu•Romania•Georgescu•EU•Marcel Ciolacu•TikTok•Ukraine•NATO•Russia•Ciolacu•Romanian•Western
Resolution / Starting Odds
Remain in EU • 25%
Exit EU • 25%
Begin exit process • 25%
Other • 25%
Official EU statements, Romanian government announcements, and credible reports from major news agencies.
Story
Pro-Russian Far-Right Candidate Georgescu Leads Romanian Election with Over 22%, Faces Ciolacu in Runoff
Nov 25, 2024, 05:44 AM
Far-right, pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu has taken a surprising lead in Romania's presidential election, according to preliminary results with over 99% of votes counted. Georgescu, who was previously ignored by pollsters, secured more than 22% of the vote in the first round, surpassing pro-EU Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who received 19%. He gained traction by going viral on TikTok and focusing his campaign on ending support for Ukraine. Described as an ultranationalist with anti-EU, anti-NATO, pro-Russia, and pro-fascist views, Georgescu is set to face Ciolacu in a runoff election. His unexpected lead represents a seismic shift in Romanian politics and raises concerns about the country's future alignment with Western institutions.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Pro-EU and NATO • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Anti-EU and NATO • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-EU/NATO • 25%
Pro-Russia • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Unclear • 25%
Accepted as candidate • 25%
Rejected as candidate • 25%
Membership application deferred • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Progress towards membership • 25%
Stalled negotiations • 25%
Membership aspirations abandoned • 25%
Membership achieved • 25%
Accession approved • 25%
Accession rejected • 25%
Accession delayed • 25%
Accession withdrawn by Moldova • 25%
Calin Georgescu wins • 25%
Other candidate wins • 25%
No election held • 25%
Election results annulled again • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New election held • 25%
Original results upheld • 25%
Georgescu disqualified • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Georgia resumes EU accession talks • 25%
Georgia forms new EU-related agreements • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in EU support • 25%
Decrease in EU support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%