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What will be the status of Netanyahu's war goals by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
All goals achieved • 25%
Some goals achieved • 25%
No goals achieved • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or credible news reports
Story
Netanyahu: Gaza Ceasefire Temporary, Israel to Free 33 Hostages for 737 Prisoners
Jan 18, 2025, 06:36 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the ceasefire in Gaza, set to begin on Sunday, is temporary and that Israel retains the right to resume hostilities with U.S. support if necessary. Netanyahu emphasized that both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have given Israel full backing to return to fighting if negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire prove futile. He promised to meet all war goals, including the return of all hostages held in Gaza. The first phase of the ceasefire, lasting six weeks, will see the release of 33 hostages in exchange for 737 Palestinian prisoners. Netanyahu also mentioned that Trump has committed to lifting all remaining restrictions on U.S. munitions, enabling Israel to resume the war with significant force if needed.
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Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Houthi retaliation • 25%
Houthi targets significantly weakened • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Increase in Houthi attacks • 25%
No change in Houthi activity • 25%
Significant reduction in Houthi attacks • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Other significant outcomes • 25%
No significant outcomes • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Apprehension of attackers • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Weakens Netanyahu's political standing • 25%
Strengthens Netanyahu's political standing • 25%
Failed retaliation • 25%
Successful retaliation • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Retaliation postponed • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Houthi resistance strengthens • 25%
Decisive Israeli victory • 25%