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What will be the resolution of TikTok's legal challenges in the US by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban blocked • 25%
Sold to another entity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Court rulings or official announcements
Story
China May Sell TikTok US to Musk's X Before January 19 Ban
Jan 14, 2025, 12:39 AM
Chinese officials are evaluating a potential option involving Elon Musk acquiring TikTok's US operations if the company fails to prevent a looming ban on the short-video app, according to people familiar with the matter. TikTok, owned by Beijing-based ByteDance Ltd., is facing a potential ban in the United States set to take effect on January 19 if legal challenges are unsuccessful, including a pending US Supreme Court decision. Under the scenario discussed, Musk's X, formerly known as Twitter, would take control of TikTok US and operate the businesses together, potentially serving its 170 million American users. Musk has previously spoken out against banning TikTok, arguing that although it would benefit X, he opposes censorship.
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Ban lifted • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban avoided through sale • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Case ongoing • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
Settlement reached, operations continue • 25%
Appeal denied, ban enforced • 25%
Appeal granted, no ban • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban delayed • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Divestiture completed • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban upheld, ByteDance divests • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Injunction granted • 33%
Settlement reached • 34%
Injunction denied • 33%
Ban lifted • 25%
Legal challenge ongoing • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Legal Battle Continues • 25%
Political Resolution • 25%
Divestment • 25%
TikTok Banned • 25%
Case dismissed on other grounds • 25%
First Amendment challenge succeeds • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
First Amendment challenge fails • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%