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What will be the primary cause of resolution for the ongoing unrest in Mozambique by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Government concessions • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Continued unrest without resolution • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official government announcements
Story
Over 1,500 Prisoners Escape in Mozambique, Causing 33 Deaths and 15 Injuries; 150 Recaptured
Dec 25, 2024, 08:46 PM
More than 1,534 prisoners escaped from a high-security prison in Maputo, Mozambique, amid ongoing protests over disputed election results. The escape occurred on Christmas Day, following the third day of unrest triggered by the confirmation of the ruling Frelimo party's victory in the recent elections. The prison break resulted in at least 33 deaths and 15 injuries during clashes with prison staff. National police chief Bernardino Rafael reported that 150 of the escapees have been recaptured, including 29 terrorists. The unrest in Mozambique has led to a total of at least 150 deaths since the announcement of the election results, with reports of violence and vandalism across the country.
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New elections held • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Other response • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Continued Unrest • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Opposition Gains Power • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant action • 25%
Mediation initiated • 25%
Official condemnation • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Frelimo confirmed as winner • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Opposition declared winner • 25%
Escalating into crisis • 25%
Stable with minor unrest • 25%
Unstable with significant protests • 25%
Stable with resolution of disputes • 25%
Majority Recaptured • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
No Significant Recapture • 25%
Minority Recaptured • 25%