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What will be the political fallout in Iran following the October 1, 2024, missile attack on Israel by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Iranian government faces internal protests • 25%
Iranian government faces international condemnation • 25%
Iranian government faces both internal protests and international condemnation • 25%
No significant political fallout • 25%
Verified news reports from reputable sources like Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera.
Story
Palestinian Man From Gaza Killed by Debris After Iranian Missiles Intercepted Over Israel
Oct 1, 2024, 06:06 PM
An Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1, 2024, resulted in the death of a Palestinian man near Jericho in the West Bank. The missiles were intercepted, but debris fell on the village of Nu'eima, killing the man, identified as Sameh Al-Asali. He was originally from Jabaliya, Gaza, and had relocated to the West Bank. Al-Asali was the sole reported casualty of the attack. No Israeli casualties have been reported.
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Increased support for Trump • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other political consequences • 25%
UN Sanctions • 25%
Condemnation Only • 25%
Military Support for Israel • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued sporadic attacks • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Missile attacks cease without further escalation • 25%
Missile attacks continue with limited escalation • 25%
Missile attacks lead to significant military conflict • 25%
Missile attacks lead to diplomatic resolution • 25%
No missile attack occurs • 25%
Missile attack occurs, no significant retaliation • 25%
Missile attack occurs, Israel retaliates • 25%
Missile attack occurs, U.S. retaliates • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Policy shift towards Israel • 25%
Increased military focus • 25%
No significant change • 25%
UN sanctions on Iran • 25%
EU sanctions on Iran • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Combined UN and EU sanctions • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Military retaliation by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
UN sanctions on Iran • 25%
Increased military aid to Israel • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strike on nuclear facilities • 25%
Strike on oil facilities • 25%
Both nuclear and oil facilities • 25%
No retaliatory strike • 25%
Sanctions by the US • 25%
Sanctions by the EU • 25%
Military response by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%