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What will be the outcome of Iran's missile attack on Israel by October 10, 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
No missile attack occurs • 25%
Missile attack occurs, no significant retaliation • 25%
Missile attack occurs, Israel retaliates • 25%
Missile attack occurs, U.S. retaliates • 25%
Verified news reports from major media outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, CNN)
Story
U.S. Warns Iran of Severe Consequences Amid Imminent Missile Attack on Israel
Oct 1, 2024, 01:59 PM
U.S. officials have warned that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel, possibly within hours, according to multiple reports. The White House has indicated that intelligence suggests Iran intends to launch missiles against Israel in the near future. In response, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has spoken with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, emphasizing that any direct military attack by Iran would carry severe consequences. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) is reported to be prepared alongside Israel. Israel's military has stated that its air defense systems are fully prepared, with Air Force planes patrolling the skies, and that any Iranian attack will have significant repercussions.
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Missile attacks cease without further escalation • 25%
Missile attacks continue with limited escalation • 25%
Missile attacks lead to significant military conflict • 25%
Missile attacks lead to diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
Moderate damage • 25%
Severe damage • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued sporadic attacks • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Military retaliation by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant damage to Iranian military infrastructure • 25%
Limited damage with minor casualties • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Iran retaliates • 25%
Iran does not retaliate • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
No damage • 25%
Attack did not occur • 25%
Strike on nuclear facilities • 25%
Strike on oil facilities • 25%
Both nuclear and oil facilities • 25%
No retaliatory strike • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Minor skirmish • 25%
Significant military engagement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Significant damage and casualties • 25%
Minimal damage and casualties • 25%
Attack intercepted • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
No missiles launched • 25%
Missiles intercepted by IDF • 25%
Missiles cause damage in Israel • 25%
Missiles cause casualties in Israel • 25%
Significant damage in Israel • 25%
Minimal damage in Israel • 25%
No successful strike • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%