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What will be the outcome of Iran's missile attack on Israel by December 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued sporadic attacks • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Major news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Iran Informed Russia and US About Size and Timing of Missile Attack on Israel
Oct 1, 2024, 06:11 PM
Iran informed international parties, including Russia and the United States, about the size and timing of its missile attack on Israel. A senior Iranian official stated that Tehran had notified Russia in advance and alerted the US through diplomatic channels shortly before the attacks. The US has previously expressed concerns over Iran's ballistic missiles, which have the capability to reach Israel in less than 15 minutes, according to Sky News Arabia.
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Strike on nuclear facilities • 25%
Strike on oil facilities • 25%
Both nuclear and oil facilities • 25%
No retaliatory strike • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Military retaliation by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No missile attack occurs • 25%
Missile attack occurs, no significant retaliation • 25%
Missile attack occurs, Israel retaliates • 25%
Missile attack occurs, U.S. retaliates • 25%
Missile attacks cease without further escalation • 25%
Missile attacks continue with limited escalation • 25%
Missile attacks lead to significant military conflict • 25%
Missile attacks lead to diplomatic resolution • 25%
Significant military engagement • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No further action • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Resolution • 25%
Significant military conflict • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
No missiles launched • 25%
Missiles intercepted by IDF • 25%
Missiles cause damage in Israel • 25%
Missiles cause casualties in Israel • 25%
Airstrike • 25%
Cyberattack • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No response • 25%
Military strike • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%