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What will be the outcome of the current Iranian missile attack on Israel by October 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Missile attacks cease without further escalation • 25%
Missile attacks continue with limited escalation • 25%
Missile attacks lead to significant military conflict • 25%
Missile attacks lead to diplomatic resolution • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli Defense Forces or credible news agencies like Reuters or AP
Story
Biden Orders U.S. Military to Aid Israel, Shoot Down Iranian Missiles from Situation Room
Oct 1, 2024, 05:25 PM
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have convened their national security team and are monitoring the Iranian missile attack on Israel from the White House Situation Room. Biden has directed the U.S. military to aid Israel's defense and shoot down any missiles targeting Israel. The U.S. air defense systems have reportedly taken down some of the Iranian missiles. The Pentagon has confirmed that there are no reported attacks targeting U.S. troops at the moment. The Biden administration has sent dozens of public signals expressing frustration over Israel's vigorous self-defense campaign.
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No missile attack occurs • 25%
Missile attack occurs, no significant retaliation • 25%
Missile attack occurs, Israel retaliates • 25%
Missile attack occurs, U.S. retaliates • 25%
No significant damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
Moderate damage • 25%
Severe damage • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued sporadic attacks • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Military retaliation by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran retaliates • 25%
Iran does not retaliate • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant damage to Iranian military infrastructure • 25%
Limited damage with minor casualties • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Strike on nuclear facilities • 25%
Strike on oil facilities • 25%
Both nuclear and oil facilities • 25%
No retaliatory strike • 25%
Significant damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
No damage • 25%
Attack did not occur • 25%
UN sanctions on Iran • 25%
EU sanctions on Iran • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Combined UN and EU sanctions • 25%
Significant damage and casualties • 25%
Minimal damage and casualties • 25%
Attack intercepted • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Significant damage in Israel • 25%
Minimal damage in Israel • 25%
No successful strike • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Minor skirmish • 25%
Significant military engagement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%