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What will be the outcome of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military action taken • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Official diplomatic statements, news reports, or announcements from the U.S. or Iranian governments
Story
Biden Weighed Iran Strike Options If Tehran Advances Toward Nuclear Weapon Before Jan. 20: Axios
Jan 2, 2025, 09:28 PM
President Joe Biden recently discussed potential plans for a U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran accelerates its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon before January 20, according to a report by Axios citing unnamed sources. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan presented Biden with options during a secret meeting held roughly one month ago that remained secret until now. Some of Biden's aides believe that Iran's advancing nuclear program and weakened air defenses present both an imperative and an opportunity to act. They also consider Iran's degraded proxies as improving the odds of a successful strike and decreasing the risk of Iranian retaliation. Biden did not authorize any military action during the meeting, and no active plans are underway to conduct such operations at this time.
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Successful Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
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New agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
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Only safe passage secured • 25%
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Iran secures safe passage and shrine protection • 25%
Only shrine protection secured • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
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Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Successful agreement • 25%
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Other • 25%
Return to JCPoA • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
New agreement • 25%
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Military action taken • 25%
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Continued stalemate • 25%
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Rejected • 25%
No Proposal Made • 25%
