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How will Iran respond to potential U.S. military actions by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Retaliatory military action • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increased nuclear activity • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official Iranian government statements or credible news reports
Story
Biden Weighed Iran Strike Options If Tehran Advances Toward Nuclear Weapon Before Jan. 20: Axios
Jan 2, 2025, 09:28 PM
President Joe Biden recently discussed potential plans for a U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran accelerates its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon before January 20, according to a report by Axios citing unnamed sources. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan presented Biden with options during a secret meeting held roughly one month ago that remained secret until now. Some of Biden's aides believe that Iran's advancing nuclear program and weakened air defenses present both an imperative and an opportunity to act. They also consider Iran's degraded proxies as improving the odds of a successful strike and decreasing the risk of Iranian retaliation. Biden did not authorize any military action during the meeting, and no active plans are underway to conduct such operations at this time.
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Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Accelerated Nuclear Development • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Military Retaliation • 25%
Increased activity • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Decreased activity • 33%
Military retaliation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increase in nuclear development • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Retaliate militarily • 25%
Escalate nuclear activities • 25%
Seek diplomatic talks • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Support from NATO allies • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Direct military action • 25%
Increased support to Houthis • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%