Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts with Iran by December 31, 2025?
2
Donald Trump•Iran•The Wall Street Journal•Tehran•Trump•Assad•Syria•Israeli•Hezbollah•Hamas•Benjamin Netanyahu•Middle East•Israel
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Official U.S. government announcements or credible news sources
Story
Trump Weighs Preemptive Airstrikes, 'Maximum Pressure 2.0' Strategy Against Iran's Nuclear Ambitions
Dec 13, 2024, 06:30 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is considering a range of measures to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including the possibility of preemptive airstrikes, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal. This approach marks a potential shift from the longstanding U.S. policy of containing Tehran through diplomacy and sanctions. Trump's transition team is exploring a strategy known as 'maximum pressure 2.0,' which would combine military actions with stringent economic sanctions. The discussions come in the wake of Iran's weakened regional position following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and Israeli military actions against Hezbollah and Hamas. Trump has expressed concerns about Iran's nuclear capabilities to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, indicating his intent to prevent any nuclear escalation during his term. The options under consideration include increasing U.S. military presence in the Middle East, selling advanced weaponry to Israel, and using the threat of military force to push Iran towards a diplomatic resolution.
View original story
Similar markets
Successful hostage release • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful resolution • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation of threats • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued status quo • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions without resolution • 25%
Increased military confrontation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
No change in tensions • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Resumption of talks • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other diplomatic outcomes • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions without escalation • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No impact • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Breakdown of talks • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%