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What will be the impact of US policy change on Russian involvement in Syria by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia increases involvement • 25%
Russia reduces involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Analysis from international relations experts or reports from major news outlets
Story
Trump Signals End to US Involvement in Syria, Cites 600,000 Russian Troop Losses
Dec 7, 2024, 06:20 PM
US President-elect Donald Trump has signaled a shift in US foreign policy regarding Syria. Trump stated that the US would cease involvement in Syria’s civil war, suggesting a possible end to support for Kurdish-led forces in the region. He emphasized that Syria is 'not our fight' and that events there should unfold without US intervention. Trump also stated 'Do Not Get Involved,' highlighting a non-interventionist stance. Additionally, he pointed out Russia's weakened position due to its war in Ukraine, claiming that Russia has lost over 600,000 troops and is unable to effectively support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. This marks a potential departure from previous US policies in the region.
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Other policy change • 25%
Maintaining current policy • 25%
Increased support for Turkey's stance • 25%
Increased support for Syrian groups • 25%
Stabilizing influence • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Destabilizing influence • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Military support to rebels • 25%
Continued non-involvement • 25%
Sanctions on Syria • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Political agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Reinforcement • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Change in strategic focus • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase • 50%
Decrease • 50%
Civil unrest • 25%
Increased control • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Decreased control • 25%
Existing bases maintained • 25%
Reduction in foreign bases • 25%
Complete expulsion of foreign bases • 25%
More foreign bases allowed • 25%
No change in military presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased government control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased government control • 25%