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What will be the outcome of U.S. efforts to end the Gaza conflict by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or involved parties
Story
Blinken Reveals U.S. Efforts with Arab Partners to End Gaza Conflict via Ceasefire and Aid
Jan 5, 2025, 03:44 AM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an interview with The New York Times, revealed that the U.S. had been working on a post-war plan for Gaza with Arab partners. Blinken highlighted the suffering in Gaza as a driving force behind U.S. efforts to end the conflict through the recovery of hostages and achieving a ceasefire. He also noted that the U.S. had been pushing for months on a plan for the day after the war in Gaza, in collaboration with many countries, particularly Arab partners. Blinken mentioned that the U.S. believed the quickest way to end the conflict in Gaza was through a ceasefire agreement. Additionally, he acknowledged periods where the U.S. felt Israel was not doing enough to facilitate humanitarian aid into Gaza, leading to U.S. pressure on Israel to take action.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
No ceasefire, continued conflict • 25%
Partial ceasefire with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire implemented • 25%
Increased international military intervention • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Hostage death toll increases • 25%
Complete Resolution • 25%
No Progress • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Partial Resolution • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Renewed negotiations • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire in effect • 25%