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What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts to pressure Hamas by July 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Official U.S. government statements, major news outlets
Story
Blinken: U.S. Pressure on Israel Caused Hamas to Withdraw from Ceasefire and Hostage Release Talks; Aid Threatened
Jan 5, 2025, 04:46 AM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has revealed in an interview with the New York Times that public pressure from the U.S. on Israel has led Hamas to withdraw from potential ceasefire and hostage release agreements. Blinken noted that whenever there was 'public daylight' between the U.S. and Israel, Hamas perceived this as an opportunity to pull back from negotiations. He also expressed frustration over the lack of international pressure on Hamas to surrender and release hostages since the October 7 attack, describing the situation as 'astounding.' Blinken further disclosed that he had to threaten to cancel a planned visit by President Joe Biden to Israel if the country did not allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, a move that was eventually agreed upon after intense discussions with Israeli leadership.
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Other outcome • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages confirmed deceased • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Hostage Release Achieved • 25%
Both Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
New hostages taken • 25%
Hostages successfully rescued • 25%
Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
Hostages harmed or neutralized • 25%
Other outcome • 25%