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What will be the outcome of the U.S. warning to Iran regarding the imminent ballistic missile attack on Israel by October 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran launches an attack • 25%
Iran backs down • 25%
U.S. military action against Iran • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Verified reports from reputable news agencies or official statements from the U.S., Israeli, or Iranian government
Story
U.S. Warns Iran of Severe Consequences Over Imminent Ballistic Missile Attack on Israel
Oct 1, 2024, 01:45 PM
The United States has issued a warning to Iran regarding its preparations to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. According to multiple sources, including a senior White House official, U.S. intelligence indicates that the attack is imminent. The Biden administration has communicated, through a third country in Europe, that any direct military action by Iran against Israel will result in severe consequences. The U.S. is actively supporting Israel's defensive preparations in anticipation of the potential attack. This situation has also impacted global markets, with oil prices rising by nearly 2% and stock indices experiencing a decline. The warning follows an incident in April when Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel. Sources for this information include Al Jazeera and Axios.
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Missile attacks cease without further escalation • 25%
Missile attacks continue with limited escalation • 25%
Missile attacks lead to significant military conflict • 25%
Missile attacks lead to diplomatic resolution • 25%
No missile attack occurs • 25%
Missile attack occurs, no significant retaliation • 25%
Missile attack occurs, Israel retaliates • 25%
Missile attack occurs, U.S. retaliates • 25%
Iran initiates military action • 25%
Iran imposes economic sanctions • 25%
Iran takes no significant action • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
Moderate damage • 25%
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US military action • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued sporadic attacks • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Military retaliation by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran retaliates • 25%
Iran does not retaliate • 25%
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No missiles launched • 25%
Missiles intercepted by IDF • 25%
Missiles cause damage in Israel • 25%
Missiles cause casualties in Israel • 25%
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No damage • 25%
Attack did not occur • 25%
UN sanctions on Iran • 25%
EU sanctions on Iran • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Combined UN and EU sanctions • 25%
Joint Military Action • 25%
Joint Sanctions • 25%
Increased Military Aid to Israel • 25%
No Joint Action • 25%