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What will be the next significant geopolitical action involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S. by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran launches another attack • 25%
U.S. or Israel retaliates • 25%
New diplomatic talks • 25%
Other significant action • 25%
Verified reports from reputable news agencies or official statements from the U.S., Israeli, or Iranian government
Story
U.S. Warns Iran of Severe Consequences Over Imminent Ballistic Missile Attack on Israel
Oct 1, 2024, 01:45 PM
The United States has issued a warning to Iran regarding its preparations to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. According to multiple sources, including a senior White House official, U.S. intelligence indicates that the attack is imminent. The Biden administration has communicated, through a third country in Europe, that any direct military action by Iran against Israel will result in severe consequences. The U.S. is actively supporting Israel's defensive preparations in anticipation of the potential attack. This situation has also impacted global markets, with oil prices rising by nearly 2% and stock indices experiencing a decline. The warning follows an incident in April when Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel. Sources for this information include Al Jazeera and Axios.
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Airstrike • 25%
Missile attack • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Naval engagement • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Airstrike by Israel • 25%
Missile attack by Iran • 25%
Naval engagement • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Increased sanctions on Israel • 25%
Mediation for peace talks • 25%
Military support to Israel • 25%
Direct military intervention • 25%
Increased economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Missile attack on Israel • 25%
Naval attack in the Persian Gulf • 25%
Cyberattack on Western assets • 25%
No major military action • 25%
New sanctions on Iran • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
UN Resolution • 25%
Military Alliance • 25%
Other • 25%
Impose Sanctions • 25%
Call for Peace Talks • 25%
Provide Military Aid to Israel • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions by the US • 25%
Sanctions by the EU • 25%
Military response by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%