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What will be the outcome of the Israeli investigation into the Hezbollah attack by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hezbollah confirmed as sole perpetrator • 25%
Hezbollah and another group involved • 25%
Attack attributed to another group • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or major news agencies like Reuters or BBC
Story
Hezbollah Attacks Ramat David Airbase in Northern Israel with Long-Range Rockets
Sep 21, 2024, 10:50 PM
Hezbollah has launched an attack on the Ramat David Airbase in northern Israel using long-range rockets. Israeli officials believe the target was the air force base, which is located southeast of Haifa and houses F-16C/D squadrons and drones operated by the Israeli Air Force. The attack is suspected to be in retaliation for Israeli airstrikes in Beirut that resulted in the deaths of Hezbollah commanders. The base is also referred to as Hamat David.
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Increased military defenses • 25%
Changes in military leadership • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Identified and prosecuted leaker • 25%
Leaker identified but not prosecuted • 25%
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Investigation ongoing • 25%
Netanyahu cleared of wrongdoing • 25%
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No official report released • 25%
Hezbollah admits involvement • 25%
Hezbollah denies involvement • 25%
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Taiwanese company responsible • 25%
Hungarian company responsible • 25%
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No definitive conclusion • 25%
Increased military action • 25%
Enhanced missile defense systems • 25%
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No wrongdoing found • 25%
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Significant wrongdoing found • 25%
Investigation not concluded • 25%
Security Breach • 25%
Technical Malfunction • 25%
External Attack • 25%
Other • 25%
No wrongdoing found • 25%
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Full wrongdoing found • 25%
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Lone wolf attack • 25%
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Undetermined • 25%
Drone identified and confirmed as Hezbollah • 25%
Drone identified but not confirmed as Hezbollah • 25%
Drone not identified • 25%
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Israel justified the strike • 25%
Strike deemed unlawful • 25%
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