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What will be the outcome of the Ukraine-Slovakia gas transit dispute by end of Q1 2025?
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Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelenskyy•Slovak•Robert Fico•Ukraine•Russian•Vladimir Putin•Zelenskyy•Fico•Slovakian•Kyiv•Bratislava•Slovakia
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine halts transit • 25%
Slovakia cuts power supply • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Neither action occurs • 25%
Official announcements from Ukrainian and Slovak governments or major news outlets
Story
Zelenskyy Accuses Slovak PM Fico of Opening 'Second Energy Front' Against Ukraine on Putin's Orders Amid Gas Transit Dispute
Dec 28, 2024, 12:49 PM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico of opening a 'second energy front' against Ukraine, following orders from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelenskyy's statement comes in response to Fico's threats to cut off Ukraine's emergency power supply this winter, amidst ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian power plants and the energy grid. The Ukrainian leader suggests that these actions are at the expense of Slovakian interests, indicating a prioritization of Russian agendas over the needs of the Slovak people. This accusation arises amid escalating tensions between Kyiv and Bratislava over the transit of Russian gas, with Fico warning of potential retaliatory measures if Ukraine halts the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia after January 1, 2025.
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Slovakia stops electricity supply • 25%
No actions taken • 25%
Ukraine halts gas transit • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
EU brokers a new deal • 25%
Slovakia cuts power • 25%
Ukraine renews contract • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
EU mediation leads to resolution • 25%
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Bilateral agreement reached • 25%
Dispute remains unresolved • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Resolved with agreement • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Escalation with sanctions • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Temporary extension • 25%
Agreement extended • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Agreement extended • 25%
Agreement terminated • 25%
Temporary extension • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Extended • 25%
Modified • 25%
Terminated • 25%
Sanctions against Slovakia • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Sanctions against Ukraine • 25%
EU mediation efforts • 25%
Political disagreement • 25%
Economic retaliation • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
EU involvement • 25%
Transit ends without incident • 25%
Transit ends with major incidents • 25%
Transit ends with minor incidents • 25%
Transit continues • 25%
New deal with Russia • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Continued shortage • 25%
Alternative EU supply • 25%