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How will the gas transit dispute between Ukraine and Slovakia be resolved by March 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolved with agreement • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Escalation with sanctions • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from Ukrainian or Slovak governments or energy authorities
Story
Poland Prepares to Increase Electricity Exports to Ukraine Amid Slovakia's Threat to Cut Power Starting January 1
Dec 29, 2024, 03:37 PM
Poland is poised to increase electricity exports to Ukraine in response to threats from Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico to cut off backup power supplies. A senior Polish official stated that the government is prepared to boost domestic electricity production to mitigate any potential imbalance in Ukraine's energy system if Slovakia follows through with its threat. This development arises amid escalating tensions over gas transit through Ukraine, particularly following Kyiv's decision to halt Russian gas transit to the West starting January 1. The Polish assurances were made public following Fico's comments two days prior, indicating Slovakia's intention to stop supplying electricity to Ukraine due to the ongoing gas dispute.
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Other resolution • 25%
EU mediation leads to resolution • 25%
Bilateral agreement reached • 25%
Dispute remains unresolved • 25%
Slovakia cuts power • 25%
EU brokers a new deal • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ukraine renews contract • 25%
Ukraine halts gas transit • 25%
Slovakia stops electricity supply • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
No actions taken • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Unilateral action by Slovakia • 25%
Unilateral action by Ukraine • 25%
Bilateral agreement • 25%
Slovakia cuts power supply • 25%
Ukraine halts transit • 25%
Neither action occurs • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Temporary extension • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Agreement extended • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Sanctions against Ukraine • 25%
EU mediation efforts • 25%
Sanctions against Slovakia • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Negotiates with Russia for direct supply • 25%
Other • 25%
Energy rationing implemented • 25%
Secures alternative supply • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Political disagreement • 25%
EU involvement • 25%
Economic retaliation • 25%
