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Will the EU intervene in the Ukraine-Slovakia gas transit dispute by end of 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official EU announcements or major news outlets
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Slovakia Threatens to Cut Backup Power to Ukraine, Citing Potential 120 Billion Euros Loss in Gas Transit Dispute
Dec 27, 2024, 08:24 PM
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened to cut off backup power supplies to Ukraine if Kyiv stops the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia and Central Europe. The threat comes as the current agreement for gas transit through Ukraine is set to expire at the end of the year, with Ukraine indicating it will not renew the contract. Fico stated that after January 1, Slovakia would evaluate the situation and consider reciprocal measures against Ukraine, including potentially halting electricity supplies needed by Ukraine during power outages. The Slovakian leader emphasized the economic impact on Europe, estimating that stopping Russian gas transit through Ukraine could cost the European Union 120 billion euros over the next two years. Additionally, Slovakia stands to lose about 500 million euros annually in transit fees if the gas flow is interrupted.
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No action taken • 25%
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Both actions occur • 25%
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Slovakia cuts power supply • 25%
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Escalation with sanctions • 25%
Resolved with agreement • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
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Agreement extended • 25%
Temporary extension • 25%
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Other resolution • 25%