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How will the EU respond to the Slovakia-Ukraine energy dispute by February 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
EU mediation efforts • 25%
Sanctions against Slovakia • 25%
Sanctions against Ukraine • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Official statements from EU institutions, confirmed by major news outlets
Story
Slovakia's Robert Fico Threatens to Cut Electricity to Ukraine if Gas Transit Stops January 1, 2025, Causing Billions of Damage
Dec 28, 2024, 09:34 AM
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has issued a warning that Slovakia may halt electricity supplies to Ukraine if Kyiv stops the transit of Russian gas through its territory. This ultimatum comes as the current gas transit agreement is set to expire on January 1, 2025. Fico emphasized that the cessation of gas transit would lead to significant economic damage, potentially amounting to billions of euros for all parties involved, including Ukraine. In a statement, he asserted, "By stopping the gas transit, President Zelensky will cause billions of damage to the EU." He also indicated that Slovakia would evaluate potential reciprocal measures against Ukraine after January 1. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Fico of acting under Russian influence, suggesting that Fico's threats were part of a broader strategy to open a 'second energy front' against Ukraine, undermining both Slovak and Ukrainian interests during a critical winter period.
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Unilateral action by Ukraine • 25%
Unilateral action by Slovakia • 25%
Bilateral agreement • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Bilateral agreement reached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Dispute remains unresolved • 25%
EU mediation leads to resolution • 25%
Escalation with sanctions • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Resolved with agreement • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Slovakia cuts power • 25%
EU brokers a new deal • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ukraine renews contract • 25%
Ukraine halts gas transit • 25%
No actions taken • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Slovakia stops electricity supply • 25%
Ukraine halts transit • 25%
Slovakia cuts power supply • 25%
Both actions occur • 25%
Neither action occurs • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
No official response • 25%
Energy rationing implemented • 25%
Negotiates with Russia for direct supply • 25%
Secures alternative supply • 25%
Other • 25%
Slovakia • 25%
Russia • 25%
Ukraine • 25%
Other • 25%
Both actions • 25%
Reduce aid to refugees • 25%
Halt electricity supplies • 25%
No action taken • 25%