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What will be the outcome of the Syrian government and SDF negotiations by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Full integration • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements or credible news reports on the outcome of negotiations
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Syria's New Leader Ahmed al-Sharaa Vows to Control All Weapons Under State Authority, Including PKK/YPG, Two Weeks After Assad's Ousting
Dec 24, 2024, 11:30 PM
Ahmed al-Sharaa, the newly appointed leader of Syria, has announced a commitment to placing all weapons within the country under state control. This declaration comes two weeks after the ousting of Bashar Assad's regime. Al-Sharaa emphasized that weapons held by various factions, including those from revolutionary groups and Kurdish forces, will be regulated by the state to ensure security and protection for minorities. During a press conference, he stated, "We will absolutely not allow there to be weapons in the country outside state control." In discussions with Turkey's foreign minister, he reiterated this stance, asserting that all factions' weapons will be integrated under a unified command. However, the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, represented by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have not participated in the recent agreements for integration, raising concerns about a potential security vacuum that could be exploited by jihadist groups like the Islamic State. Al-Sharaa's government has reached an agreement with other rebel groups, but the absence of the SDF could lead to ongoing divisions within Syria.
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No Talks Initiated • 25%
Ongoing Negotiations • 25%
Negotiations Collapse • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Autonomous region for Kurds • 25%
Continued negotiations • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
New Peace Treaty • 25%
Military Withdrawal • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
National unity government formed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Interim government formed • 25%
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New leader emerges • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Status quo • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased Hostilities • 25%