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What will be the outcome of the six-week ceasefire between Israel and Hamas?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire successfully completed • 25%
Ceasefire ended early due to violations • 25%
Ceasefire extended beyond six weeks • 25%
Ceasefire collapsed, conflict resumed • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from involved parties
Story
Israel Approves Six-Week Ceasefire; Hostage Exchange of 33 for 1,904 Starts Sunday
Jan 18, 2025, 07:29 AM
Israel's government has approved a ceasefire agreement with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, set to begin at 6:30 am GMT on Sunday and last for six weeks. The agreement, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, includes the release of 33 Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for the release of 1,904 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, including women and young men up to 25 years old. The Israeli cabinet voted in favor of the agreement after lengthy deliberations, with 24 ministers supporting and 8 opposing. The Israel Defense Forces announced preparations to implement the agreement, with the first hostages expected to be released after 4 pm on Sunday. The exchange will take place over the first phase of the agreement, with further details to be announced upon completion.
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Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
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Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with full-scale conflict • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
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Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
60-day ceasefire agreed • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Partial reduction in hostilities • 25%
Complete cessation of hostilities • 25%
Increase in hostilities • 25%
No change in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%