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What will be the outcome of the proposed single-stage ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Deal agreed and implemented • 25%
Deal agreed but not implemented • 25%
Deal not agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or Hamas, and major news outlets such as BBC, CNN, or Reuters
Story
Israel Proposes Single-Stage Ceasefire Deal with Hamas for Hostage Release, Sinwar's Safe Passage
Sep 19, 2024, 04:24 PM
Israel has submitted a new proposal for a single-stage ceasefire deal with Hamas, which includes the immediate release of all hostages and the safe passage of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and other members out of Gaza. This proposal aims to end the ongoing conflict and secure the release of both living and deceased hostages. The deal also involves releasing Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons. A secret alternative plan is also emerging, proposing a single step that combines all stages and involves Gaza disarmament. The previous truce collapsed in November due to Hamas allegedly changing the terms to murder hostages before returning them. Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon stated that Sinwar intended to exchange hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and blamed Israeli officials Smotrich and Ben-Gvir for obstructing the deal.
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Comprehensive ceasefire deal reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete adherence by both sides • 25%
Partial adherence with minor violations • 25%
Significant violations by either side • 25%
Complete breakdown of the ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Cease-fire agreement with hostage release • 25%
Cease-fire agreement without hostage release • 25%
No cease-fire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Comprehensive deal reached, all hostages released • 25%
Partial deal reached, some hostages released • 25%
No deal reached, no hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release deal agreed • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release deal agreed • 25%
Neither agreed • 25%
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Complete peace maintained • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Deal collapses entirely • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%