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What will be the outcome of the proposed ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreed and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or Hamas, major news outlets like BBC, CNN, or Reuters
Story
Israel Proposes New Ceasefire Deal with Hamas, Including Yahya Sinwar's Exit from Gaza
Sep 19, 2024, 04:24 PM
Israel has presented a new proposal for a ceasefire deal with Hamas, which includes the immediate release of all hostages and the safe passage of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and others out of Gaza. This comprehensive deal aims to combine all stages of previous negotiations into a single step, including Gaza disarmament. Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon commented that Sinwar's intention was to exchange hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and he accused Israeli ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir of obstructing the deal. The proposal also involves the release of Palestinian prisoners and the involvement of mediators. The November truce collapsed due to Hamas falsely claiming that female hostages set for release were dead, leading to a breakdown in trust.
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Comprehensive ceasefire deal reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deal agreed and implemented • 25%
Deal agreed but not implemented • 25%
Deal not agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement not reached • 25%
Partial agreement with conditions • 25%
Talks break down completely • 25%
Complete adherence by both sides • 25%
Partial adherence with minor violations • 25%
Significant violations by either side • 25%
Complete breakdown of the ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release deal agreed • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release deal agreed • 25%
Neither agreed • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Cease-fire agreement with hostage release • 25%
Cease-fire agreement without hostage release • 25%
No cease-fire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Comprehensive deal reached, all hostages released • 25%
Partial deal reached, some hostages released • 25%
No deal reached, no hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%