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What will be the outcome of the proposed comprehensive deal between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2024?
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Israel•Hamas•Gaza•Palestinian•Israeli•Yahya Sinwar•Gaza Strip•Benjamin Netanyahu•Channel 13•Sinwar•Smotrich•CBS News
Resolution / Starting Odds
Comprehensive deal reached, all hostages released • 25%
Partial deal reached, some hostages released • 25%
No deal reached, no hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or Hamas, major news outlets
Story
Israel Proposes Comprehensive Deal to Release Hostages in Gaza, Including Sinwar's Exit
Sep 19, 2024, 04:26 AM
Israel has proposed a new comprehensive deal to secure the release of all hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. The proposal includes the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons and the safe exit of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar along with anyone else wishing to leave the Gaza Strip. This comes amid accusations that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly obstructed previous hostage deals. Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon stated in an interview with Channel 13 that Sinwar's intention was to exchange hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and blamed Israeli politicians Smotrich and Ben-Gvir for obstructing the deal. Israel’s hostage coordinator told CBS News that Sinwar could leave Gaza with his family if the hostages are released.
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Comprehensive ceasefire deal reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deal agreed and implemented • 25%
Deal agreed but not implemented • 25%
Deal not agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages released, no ceasefire • 25%
Hostages released, ceasefire agreed • 25%
No hostages released, ongoing conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Complete ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Complete adherence by both sides • 25%
Partial adherence with minor violations • 25%
Significant violations by either side • 25%
Complete breakdown of the ceasefire • 25%
Body returned • 33%
Prisoner exchange • 33%
No resolution • 33%
Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release agreement reached • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release agreements reached • 25%
No agreements reached • 25%