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What will be the outcome of the potential Iranian attack on Israel by August 12, 2024?
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Hungarian•Péter Szijjártó•Israeli•Israel Katz•Iran•Israel•Hungary•Iranian•Ali Bagheri•Ismail Haniyeh•Hamas•Tehran•Middle East•Axios
Resolution / Starting Odds
No attack occurs • 25%
Minor skirmish • 25%
Significant military engagement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Major news outlets such as Reuters, BBC, and Al Jazeera
Story
Hungary Informs Israel of Imminent Iranian Attack on Monday
Aug 5, 2024, 05:10 PM
On Monday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó informed Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz that Iran plans to attack Israel. The information was conveyed to Hungary by acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri. The warning follows the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas' political bureau. Israel has stated that it would destroy all Iranian nuclear facilities if Tehran attacks any civilian facility on Israeli territory. The situation has heightened tensions in the Middle East, with concerns about a potential major conflict, according to senior Israeli officials and Axios.
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Significant damage and casualties • 25%
Minimal damage and casualties • 25%
Attack intercepted • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No missile attack occurs • 25%
Missile attack occurs, no significant retaliation • 25%
Missile attack occurs, Israel retaliates • 25%
Missile attack occurs, U.S. retaliates • 25%
Significant damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
No damage • 25%
Attack did not occur • 25%
Missile attacks cease without further escalation • 25%
Missile attacks continue with limited escalation • 25%
Missile attacks lead to significant military conflict • 25%
Missile attacks lead to diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
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Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strike on nuclear facilities • 25%
Strike on oil facilities • 25%
Both nuclear and oil facilities • 25%
No retaliatory strike • 25%
Significant military engagement • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
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No further action • 25%
Significant damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
No damage • 25%
Attack did not occur • 25%
Israel attacks Iran • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%