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What will be the outcome of the alleged Iranian attack on Israel by August 10, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant damage and casualties • 25%
Minimal damage and casualties • 25%
Attack intercepted • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Verified news reports from reputable sources such as Reuters, BBC, or CNN
Story
Trump Claims Imminent Iranian Attack on Israel Tonight
Aug 5, 2024, 06:19 PM
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly stated that he has received information indicating an imminent attack by Iran on Israel tonight. Trump made this claim during a livestream with internet personality Adin Ross on August 5, 2024. He emphasized that the information is not classified but is based on widely reported sources. Trump's statements have sparked significant attention and concern, given the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
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No attack occurs • 25%
Minor skirmish • 25%
Significant military engagement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
No missile attack occurs • 25%
Missile attack occurs, no significant retaliation • 25%
Missile attack occurs, Israel retaliates • 25%
Missile attack occurs, U.S. retaliates • 25%
Missile attacks cease without further escalation • 25%
Missile attacks continue with limited escalation • 25%
Missile attacks lead to significant military conflict • 25%
Missile attacks lead to diplomatic resolution • 25%
Strike on nuclear facilities • 25%
Strike on oil facilities • 25%
Both nuclear and oil facilities • 25%
No retaliatory strike • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued sporadic attacks • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Significant military engagement • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No further action • 25%
Significant damage to Iranian military infrastructure • 25%
Limited damage with minor casualties • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Significant damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
No damage • 25%
Attack did not occur • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Military retaliation by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant damage • 25%
Minor damage • 25%
No damage • 25%
Attack did not occur • 25%
Iran retaliates • 25%
Iran does not retaliate • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%