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What will be the outcome of the Manbij ceasefire by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with minor clashes • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major clashes • 25%
New ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and statements from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed factions
Story
Mazlum Abdi Announces U.S.-Backed Forces and Turkish-Backed Fighters Reach Ceasefire in Manbij on December 11, 2024
Dec 11, 2024, 08:49 AM
A ceasefire has been reached in Manbij, Syria, between the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed fighters, according to Mazlum Abdi, a spokesperson for the SDF. The agreement was facilitated by the United States, marking a significant development in the ongoing conflict in the region. Reports indicate that the truce aims to ease tensions and prevent further hostilities in the area, which has seen intermittent clashes between the opposing factions. The announcement has been corroborated by various news outlets, highlighting the importance of U.S. mediation in achieving this temporary peace.
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No significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Increased Rebel Control • 25%
Syrian Government Intervention • 25%
Return of YPG/PKK • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Withdrawal not completed • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
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Full withdrawal completed • 25%
SDF regains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Continued military conflict • 25%
Ceasefire without formal agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%