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Outcome of US-brokered ceasefire in Manbij by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
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Story
Syrian Opposition Captures Deir al-Zour, Aims for Raqqa Amid US-Brokered Ceasefire
Dec 11, 2024, 11:04 AM
Syrian opposition forces, including those backed by Turkey, have announced the capture of the strategic city of Deir al-Zour in eastern Syria from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This development follows a series of defections within the SDF, leading to their retreat to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River. The opposition forces have also declared their intention to advance towards Raqqa to further diminish the influence of the PKK/YPG, a group considered terrorist by some entities. Additionally, a ceasefire agreement has been reached between the SDF and Turkish-backed rebels in Manbij, facilitated by US mediation, aiming for a political process to shape the future of the country.
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with minor clashes • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major clashes • 25%
New ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Syrian National Army • 25%
PKK/YPG • 25%
Another rebel group • 25%
Joint control or other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Military Withdrawal • 25%
New Peace Treaty • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
Increased Rebel Control • 25%
Return of YPG/PKK • 25%
Syrian Government Intervention • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Under full SNA control • 25%
Under partial SNA control • 25%
Under PKK/YPG control • 25%
Disputed • 25%