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What will be the outcome of the Iran-backed militias' agreement with Iraq by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement holds without violations • 25%
Minor violations reported • 25%
Major violations reported • 25%
Agreement completely breaks down • 25%
Credible news reports and official statements from involved parties
Story
Iran-Backed Militias in Iraq Agree to Halt Missile and Drone Attacks on Israel Amid Regional Tensions and Support for Hamas
Dec 23, 2024, 07:08 AM
Iran-backed militias in Iraq have reportedly reached an agreement with the Iraqi government to cease attacks on Israel and refrain from involvement in the situation in Syria. This development comes amid a broader context of regional tensions, particularly concerning support for Hamas and the ongoing conflict in Lebanon. The agreement was highlighted by various media outlets, including the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar. Reports indicate that the militias will maintain their anti-Israel stance but will halt missile and drone attacks as they await the policy direction of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump regarding the Middle East, especially in relation to Iran. The Iraqi government is expected to stand firm against international pressures while navigating this complex geopolitical landscape.
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Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Continued low-level conflict • 25%
Escalation to larger conflict • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Decisive victory for Syrian government • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Rebel forces gain ground • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Syrian army regains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Rebels gain more territory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Israeli strikes in Iraq • 25%
Kataib Sarkha al-Quds attacks U.S. forces • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
U.S. responsible • 25%
Israel responsible • 25%
Other country responsible • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Troops remain • 25%
Troops withdrawn • 25%
Troops increased • 25%
Other outcome • 25%