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Market
What will be the outcome of U.S., Israel, and Iranian-backed militia tensions by March 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Israeli strikes in Iraq • 25%
Kataib Sarkha al-Quds attacks U.S. forces • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Resolution based on developments reported by major news outlets and official government statements
Story
Biden Administration Warns Iraq of Potential Israeli Strikes if Iranian Attacks Continue; Kataib Sarkha al-Quds Threatens Missile and Drone Strikes
Nov 5, 2024, 09:29 PM
The Biden administration has issued a warning to the Iraqi government regarding the potential for Iranian-backed militias to launch missile and drone strikes against U.S. forces and Israel. This warning follows threats from Kataib Sarkha al-Quds, an Iranian-backed paramilitary group in Iraq, which stated that any attacks on its forces would provoke retaliation. U.S. officials indicated that if Iraq fails to prevent such attacks from its territory, it could face Israeli strikes. The situation has escalated, with U.S. officials emphasizing the need for Iraq to act to avoid further conflict, as Iranian militias in Iraq are poised to target U.S. military bases if attacked. The warnings come amid heightened tensions in the region, with U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria being particularly at risk.
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De-escalation and diplomatic talks • 25%
Continued military presence without conflict • 25%
Limited military engagement • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
No escalation occurs • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Military confrontation • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other regional involvement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Limited skirmish • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No conflict • 25%
De-escalation and talks • 25%
Continued military skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
Continued verbal threats • 25%
De-escalation without conflict • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Peace Treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran victory • 25%
Israel victory • 25%
Stalemate/ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran • 25%
Iran retaliates against Israel • 25%
Both countries engage in conflict • 25%
No military action occurs • 25%