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What will be the outcome of Iranian-backed militias' involvement in northern Syria by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Decisive victory for Syrian government • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Rebel forces gain ground • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and statements from involved parties
Story
Iran-Backed Militias from Iraq Enter Syria to Aid Assad's Forces
Dec 2, 2024, 07:39 AM
Iranian-backed militias, including Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun groups, have entered Syria from Iraq overnight to reinforce Syrian government forces battling insurgents in the northern regions of the country. According to two Syrian military sources, dozens of Hashd al-Shaabi fighters crossed near Al Bukamal, with reinforcements heading to the northern frontlines. This move is seen as an effort to bolster the beleaguered Syrian army against ongoing rebel offensives.
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Rebels gain more territory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Syrian army regains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Humanitarian aid only • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Troop deployment • 25%
Military advisors only • 25%
Troops remain • 25%
Troops increased • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Troops withdrawn • 25%
Iran withdraws support from Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran maintains current involvement • 25%
Iran mediates a peace agreement • 25%
Provide missile and drone support • 25%
Deploy ground forces • 25%
Increase advisors only • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Other • 25%
Returned to Syria • 25%
Granted asylum in Iraq • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Assad Overthrown • 25%
Rebel Gains • 25%
Complete Rebel Defeat • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased influence • 25%