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What will be the outcome of Russia's engagement with Syrian opposition by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Political agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian Foreign Ministry, Syrian government, or major news outlets
Story
Russia Engages All Syrian Opposition Groups, Rejects Role in Power Transfer Talks Amid Assad's Departure
Dec 8, 2024, 11:39 AM
The Russian Foreign Ministry has confirmed that Moscow is in contact with all Syrian opposition groups amid escalating tensions in Syria. The ministry emphasized that Russia has not participated in negotiations concerning the transfer of power from President Bashar al-Assad. Furthermore, the Russian government called for a political resolution to the ongoing conflict and urged all parties to renounce violence, supporting an inclusive political process based on United Nations Security Council resolution 2254. The ministry's statements reflect Russia's ongoing involvement in the Syrian situation, highlighting its position as a mediator while distancing itself from direct negotiations regarding Assad's authority.
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Deterioration of relations • 25%
Formal alliance • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Reinforcement • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Opposition gains significant ground • 25%
Regime maintains current positions • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Destabilizing influence • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Stabilizing influence • 25%
Increased government control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased government control • 25%
Other • 25%
Stabilization of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthening of Iranian influence • 25%
Creation of a power vacuum • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Full control and recognized government • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflict • 25%
Regime reestablished • 25%
Partition of Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Military de-escalation • 25%
Political reform • 25%
Other focus • 25%
Opposition fails to capture any major cities • 25%
Opposition captures Damascus • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Opposition captures other major cities but not Damascus • 25%
Full reconciliation achieved • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
No reconciliation achieved • 25%
Partial reconciliation achieved • 25%