Loading...
Market
What will be the impact of Russian military presence on Syria's politics by December 31, 2025?
2
Russia•Syria•Bloomberg•Russian•Mediterranean•Hmeimim•Idlib•Africa•Kremlin•Middle East•Defense Ministry•Moscow•HTS•Damascus
Resolution / Starting Odds
Stabilizing influence • 25%
Destabilizing influence • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from credible geopolitical analysts and reports from major news outlets
Story
Russia to Retain Tartus, Hmeimim Bases in Syria After Assad's Fall
Dec 12, 2024, 03:32 PM
Russia is close to reaching an agreement with Syria's new leadership to maintain its two military bases in the country, following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. Talks are underway for Russian forces to remain at the naval port in Tartus—Russia's only Mediterranean port—and the air base at Hmeimim, which has been used to bomb Idlib and is vital for supplying Russia's security operations in Africa. The potential deal, which may be a temporary arrangement, is significant for the Kremlin's strategic interests in the Middle East amid Syria's instability. The Defense Ministry in Moscow reportedly believes it has an informal understanding with the HTS-led regime in Damascus, though the situation could still change.
View original story
Similar markets
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Reinforcement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Maintained current presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Reduced presence • 25%
Unchanged presence • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Russia increases involvement • 25%
Russia reduces involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Political agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Maintained presence • 25%
Reduced presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
No change in military presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increase • 50%
Decrease • 50%
Maintain presence at both bases • 25%
Withdraw from both bases • 25%
Maintain presence at one base • 25%
Other • 25%
More foreign bases allowed • 25%
Existing bases maintained • 25%
Reduction in foreign bases • 25%
Complete expulsion of foreign bases • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Support • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased Russian Control • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Rebel Control • 25%
International Intervention • 25%
Increased support for Assad regime • 25%
Increased opposition to Assad regime • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other political shifts • 25%