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Primary outcome of Russia's involvement in Syria by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Stabilization of Syria • 25%
Creation of a power vacuum • 25%
Strengthening of Iranian influence • 25%
Other • 25%
Analysis from major international think tanks or reputable media outlets
Story
Putin: Russia Evacuated 4,000 Iranian Fighters from Syria via Khmeimim Base
Dec 19, 2024, 11:05 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia has evacuated 4,000 Iranian fighters from Syria to Tehran via the Khmeimim air base at Tehran's request. He stated that after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, government forces and pro-Iranian units withdrew without a fight, with some units moving to Lebanon and Iraq. Putin also mentioned that Aleppo was captured by 350 opposition fighters while 30,000 government troops and pro-Iranian units retreated. He emphasized that Russia has achieved its goals in Syria by preventing the creation of a terrorist enclave and does not consider the developments as a defeat.
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Partial withdrawal • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Reinforcement • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
International Intervention • 25%
Increased Russian Control • 25%
Increased Rebel Control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Political agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Security of Bases • 25%
Economic Influence • 25%
Political Stability • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Other strategic focus • 25%
Supporting Syrian government forces • 25%
Countering Israeli airstrikes • 25%
Securing military bases • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Maintained presence • 25%
Reduced presence • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Bases maintained at current levels • 25%
Bases reduced • 25%
Bases expanded • 25%
Bases completely withdrawn • 25%
Destabilizing influence • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Stabilizing influence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
No change in military presence • 25%
Increase in military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Decrease in military presence • 25%
Maintain presence at both bases • 25%
Other • 25%
Maintain presence at one base • 25%
Withdraw from both bases • 25%