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What will be the outcome of Putin-Trump negotiations on Ukraine's NATO membership by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine agrees to neutrality • 25%
Ukraine remains aligned with NATO • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the governments involved, verified news reports
Story
Putin to Demand Ukraine's Neutrality, Limited Army, and NATO Rejection in Talks with Trump, per Bloomberg
Jan 15, 2025, 05:15 PM
In upcoming negotiations with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to demand that Ukraine never join NATO and significantly reduce its military capabilities. Reports indicate that Putin seeks to establish Ukraine as a neutral state, which would involve curtailing military ties with the NATO alliance. Additional demands from Russia include restrictions on NATO's supply of weapons to Ukraine, specifically that such arms should not be used against Russia or for reclaiming territories. These conditions reflect Russia's assertive stance in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Putin reportedly believing he holds an advantage in the situation.
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Ukraine remains non-NATO • 25%
New security arrangement • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Stalemate/no agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full peace agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement, no territorial changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine increases military ties with NATO • 25%
Ukraine maintains current military ties with NATO • 25%
Ukraine reduces military ties with NATO • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Membership granted by 2025 • 25%
Membership delayed beyond 2025 • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Rejected by Ukraine • 25%
No new proposal made • 25%
Accepted by all parties • 25%
Rejected by Russia • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Agreement in principle • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Meeting postponed • 25%