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What will be the outcome of North Korean military presence in Ukraine by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued involvement • 25%
Increase in military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from South Korea's National Intelligence Service or credible international news agencies
Story
North Korean Soldiers in Ukraine Suffer Over 3,000 Casualties, Instructed to Commit Suicide to Avoid Capture: South Korea's NIS
Jan 13, 2025, 04:05 AM
North Korean soldiers deployed to support Russia in the conflict with Ukraine have suffered significant casualties, with approximately 300 soldiers killed and 2,700 injured, according to South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS). The total number of casualties is estimated to exceed 3,000. The NIS also reported that North Korean authorities have instructed their soldiers to commit suicide by blowing themselves up to avoid capture. This information was shared during a closed-door briefing to the South Korean parliament's intelligence committee.
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Increased tensions with other nations • 25%
Significant strategic advantage for Russia • 25%
Minimal impact on conflict • 25%
Withdrawal of North Korean troops • 25%
Significant territorial gain • 25%
High casualties with minimal gain • 25%
Withdrawal due to international pressure • 25%
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Stalemate with Ukrainian forces • 25%
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Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
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Peace agreement involving North Korea • 25%
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Increased troop deployment • 25%
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Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
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No change in involvement • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
No incident • 25%
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Majority casualties • 25%
Moderate impact on conflict • 25%
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No significant reaction • 25%
Military aid to Ukraine • 25%
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