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Will North Korean military involvement in Ukraine cease by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from North Korea, South Korea's National Intelligence Service, or credible international news agencies
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North Korean Soldiers in Ukraine Suffer Over 3,000 Casualties, Instructed to Commit Suicide to Avoid Capture: South Korea's NIS
Jan 13, 2025, 04:05 AM
North Korean soldiers deployed to support Russia in the conflict with Ukraine have suffered significant casualties, with approximately 300 soldiers killed and 2,700 injured, according to South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS). The total number of casualties is estimated to exceed 3,000. The NIS also reported that North Korean authorities have instructed their soldiers to commit suicide by blowing themselves up to avoid capture. This information was shared during a closed-door briefing to the South Korean parliament's intelligence committee.
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Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased troop deployment • 25%
Stalemate with current forces • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Withdrawal of North Korean troops • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Peace agreement involving North Korea • 25%
Withdrawal without significant impact • 25%
North Korea achieves military objectives • 25%
Stalemate with Ukrainian forces • 25%
Significant North Korean losses • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Withdrawal of troops • 25%
Increased troop deployment • 25%
Minimal impact on conflict • 25%
Increased tensions with other nations • 25%
Withdrawal of North Korean troops • 25%
Significant strategic advantage for Russia • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increased involvement • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
No change in involvement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Withdrawal of troops • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
No change in involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
EU sanctions • 25%
US sanctions • 25%
UN sanctions • 25%
No incident • 25%