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What will be the outcome of negotiations for Liri Albag's release by September 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
No information • 25%
Official statements from Israeli government, Hamas, or international mediators
Story
Hamas Releases Video of 19-Year-Old Israeli Hostage Liri Albag, First Sign of Life in 456 Days
Jan 4, 2025, 02:24 PM
Hamas has released a propaganda video on Saturday showing Israeli hostage Liri Albag, a 19-year-old surveillance soldier who was abducted from the Nahal Oz military post during the October 7 attack. In the three-and-a-half-minute video, Albag states she has been held for over 450 days, indicating it was filmed recently. This release marks the first sign of life from Albag in 456 days. Her family has requested that no parts or images of the video be publicized.
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Release through military action • 25%
Release through negotiation • 25%
No release by June 30, 2025 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continued Captivity • 25%
Other • 25%
Military Operation • 25%
Negotiated Release • 25%
Released without charges • 25%
Released after formal charges • 25%
Still detained without charges • 25%
Still detained with charges • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Remains in prison • 25%
Transferred to house arrest • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Released • 25%
Prisoner exchange involving Mohammad Abedini • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Cecilia Sala remains detained • 25%
Cecilia Sala released • 25%
Remains detained • 25%
Released without charges • 25%
Released with charges • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ransom Paid • 25%
Data Released • 25%
Negotiation Ongoing • 25%
Breach Mitigated • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%