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What will be the outcome of Israel's unilateral actions to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful prevention • 25%
Partial prevention • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increased tensions and conflict • 25%
Reports and analyses from international think tanks and news agencies
Story
Israeli Ministers Assert Military Freedom, Establish Buffer Zone Along Northern Border
Dec 1, 2024, 10:59 AM
Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have made strong statements regarding Israel's stance on Hezbollah and its activities near the northern border. Gantz emphasized Israel's freedom to act against any threats from Hezbollah, regardless of their proximity to the border. Smotrich, serving as Finance Minister, declared that Israel will not wait for international mechanisms to address threats and will continue to take unilateral action to prevent Hezbollah from restoring its capabilities. He also challenged France and other guarantor nations of the ceasefire agreement, asserting Israel's right to maintain military freedom in Lebanon. Additionally, Smotrich announced that the Israeli Cabinet has decided to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding infrastructure and homes destroyed by the IDF along the northern border, effectively creating a de facto buffer zone in the region.
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
New agreement • 25%
Ceasefire violated • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire mutually violated • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hezbollah • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Israel takes military action • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Hezbollah withdraws • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Partial compliance with ongoing tensions • 25%
Peaceful resolution with full compliance • 25%
Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Complete victory over Iran and proxies • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Support for Israel • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Calls for restraint • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant Houthi retreat • 25%
Increased Houthi aggression • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
Ground Invasion • 25%
Cyber Attacks • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into war • 25%