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What will be the outcome of Israel's military strike on Iran in terms of military objectives within one month?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Objectives fully achieved • 25%
Objectives partially achieved • 25%
Objectives not achieved • 25%
Unclear outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or credible military analysis reports
Story
Netanyahu Confirms Israel Plans Military Strike on Iran Before November 5 U.S. Elections
Oct 16, 2024, 11:57 AM
Israel is planning to carry out a military strike on Iran before the U.S. elections on November 5, according to reports from the Washington Post and other sources. The decision is motivated by a desire to avoid being perceived as weak by Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has informed the Biden administration that the strike will target military facilities while avoiding nuclear and oil sites. Netanyahu confirms that this action is part of a series of responses to recent provocations from Iran, including an October 1 missile strike.
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Increased Tensions • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Military Escalation • 25%
Decisive victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Decisive victory for Iran • 25%
Ongoing conflict without resolution • 25%
Increased operational success • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased Iranian defense capabilities • 25%
De-escalation of tensions • 25%
Successful strike with minimal fallout • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Success with minimal international backlash • 25%
Success with significant international backlash • 25%
Failure with minimal international backlash • 25%
Failure with significant international backlash • 25%
Approved and executed • 25%
Approved but not executed • 25%
Not approved • 25%
Deferred decision • 25%
Condemnation by major powers • 25%
Support by major powers • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Significant financial damage to Iran • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Major conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Strikes aborted or postponed • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
Successful strikes with no escalation • 25%
Strikes lead to regional escalation • 25%
Strikes are called off • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%