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What will be the outcome of Israeli planned retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Strikes aborted or postponed • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
Official statements from involved governments or credible news reports
Story
Israel Notifies White House of Planned Retaliatory Strikes on Iranian Military Targets
Oct 26, 2024, 12:59 AM
Israel has notified the White House of its planned retaliatory strikes on Iran, targeting military installations. President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have been briefed and are closely monitoring the situation. The White House urged Israel to avoid actions that could unduly escalate tensions or cause economic disruptions. Harris, currently in Houston, is being continuously updated on the developments.
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Significant military engagement • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No further action • 25%
Approved and executed • 25%
Approved but not executed • 25%
Not approved • 25%
Deferred decision • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Resolution • 25%
Iran's nuclear facilities significantly damaged • 25%
Iran's nuclear facilities slightly damaged • 25%
Iran's nuclear facilities not damaged • 25%
No airstrikes conducted • 25%
Strike on nuclear facilities • 25%
Strike on oil facilities • 25%
Both nuclear and oil facilities • 25%
No retaliatory strike • 25%
Strikes conducted • 25%
Strikes planned but not executed • 25%
No strikes planned • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant military conflict • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful strikes with no retaliation • 25%
Successful strikes with Iranian retaliation • 25%
Unsuccessful strikes • 25%
No strikes conducted • 25%
Israel attacks Iran • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued sporadic attacks • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Military Escalation • 25%
Iran retaliates • 25%
Iran does not retaliate • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%