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What will be the outcome of Israel's new military strategy in Iran by mid-2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased operational success • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased Iranian defense capabilities • 25%
De-escalation of tensions • 25%
Assessment from defense analysts or official statements from Israeli government
Story
Israel's Military Establishes New Units for Repetitive Actions in Iran Following Strikes on Military Targets and Air Defenses
Oct 31, 2024, 05:05 PM
The Israeli military has announced the establishment of new departments within its Intelligence Directorate and Air Force, aimed at facilitating 'repetitive actions' in Iran. This development follows a series of strikes on Iranian military targets, which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claim have neutralized Iran's air defenses and eliminated immediate threats to Israel. The newly created units are designed to enhance operational capabilities and planning for future military actions against Iran, allowing for increased aerial freedom in the region. The IDF's actions are part of a broader strategy to address perceived threats from Iran.
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Limited skirmishes • 25%
Major conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Decisive victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Decisive victory for Iran • 25%
Ongoing conflict without resolution • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant financial damage to Iran • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
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Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Successful strike with Arab support • 25%
Unsuccessful strike • 25%
No strike occurs • 25%
Strike occurs but without Arab support • 25%
Successful strike with minimal fallout • 25%
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No significant military action taken • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Approved and executed • 25%
Approved but not executed • 25%
Not approved • 25%
Deferred decision • 25%
Successful with minimal escalation • 25%
Leads to broader conflict • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Military Action Taken • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale War • 25%
No Military Confrontation • 25%
Success with minimal international backlash • 25%
Success with significant international backlash • 25%
Failure with minimal international backlash • 25%
Failure with significant international backlash • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
No conflict occurs • 25%